Consider the following applications in your next redesign. How Anchoring Can Improve the User ExperienceĪnchoring can set novice users up for success and establish clear expectations about how a process or experience might go. Study Results: Bids on a Wireless Keyboard, by SSN Last two digits ofĪverage bids for a wireless keyboard varied depending on the first hypothetical price (equal with the last two digits of their SSN) that people had been asked to consider: those whose SSN ended in low numbers tended to make lower bids than people whose SSN ended in high numbers.īoth studies illustrate people’s tendency to overly rely on initial information to anchor future estimates, even if those anchors have little relevance to the actual decision being made. In other words, participants were primed to use the last two digits of their SSN as an anchor for the price of the good, although the SSN was obviously unrelated to the value of the good. People whose SSNs ended in low digits chose a lower price threshold than people with high-ending SSNs. After accepting or rejecting that price, they had to state the maximum price they would actually be willing to pay for the item. In a similar study done by Dan Ariely and colleagues at MIT, participants were asked whether they would purchase various goods (such as wireless keyboards, bottles of wine, and textbooks) for the dollar figure equal to their last two digits of their social security number (SSN). Small numbers at the beginning signaled a small result, and large ones coaxed a large estimate. Why such a big difference in estimates? The answer is that the leading “anchor” numbers of each of the problems (1x2=2 vs. Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman’s research on judgment heuristics revealed large discrepancies in estimates when people were shown different versions of the same mathematical product. Not a negligible difference - created by simply presenting the stimulus in reverse order. For the group presented with 8x7圆x5x4x3x2x1, the median estimate was 2,250, or more than 4 times bigger. For the group which was presented with the 1x2x3x4x5圆x7x8 problem, the median estimate was 512 - meaning that half the participants came up with a number smaller than 512. But people made very different estimates for each mathematical expression. The solution to both problems is the same number: 40,320. In 1974, the psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman asked each of their study participants to calculate one of two different mathematical expressions:īecause participants were given only 5 seconds to solve the problem, they estimated the answer as opposed to actually performing the multiplication. Then write down your answer.ĭid you write a number between 100 and 900? Most people do. Take ONLY FIVE SECONDS to calculate the following mathematical expression (no calculators!). For fun, let’s pretend we’re subjects in the most notorious study. Researchers have conducted many studies about anchoring. Because they are so familiar with the situation, their early responses are likely to be correct. There are some people who benefit greatly from anchoring for example, domain experts with deep experience directly related to the decision or judgment at hand. They tend to be automatic for most people and can sometimes lead to erroneous estimates or judgment calls. Anchoring and other judgment heuristics, such as framing and priming, are helpful in expediting everyday decisions, particularly in the absence of information, resources, or time. Judgment HeuristicsĪnchoring is a judgment heuristic. This is anchoring bias at work.ĭefinition: Anchoring (or focalism) bias refers to the tendency to rely on a single piece of information or aspect of an event (the “anchor”) to inform decision making. We had focused so much on the price and vehicle make, that we did not consider the possible issues (such as rusted parts in old, unused cars). Driving home, we smiled from ear to ear about our shiny used car, unknowing it would fall apart within 18 months. The price was shockingly low, only $2,000. My husband and I were car shopping and found a used BMW that looked pristine and had only 10,000 miles on it.
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